Thursday, 10 March 2011

USD/Canadian dollar to 11 March 2011

USD/Canadian dollar to 11 March 2011

USD/CAD to trade with bullish bias. Underpinned by negative global risk sentiment; weaker commodity and oil prices; Canadian January trade surplus of just C$116 million (well below forecast for C$2.6 billion surplus). But USD/CAD gains tempered by position adjustments before weekend. Data focus: 1200 GMT Canada February labor force survey. USD/CAD daily chart positive-biased as stochastics turned bullish at oversold; MACD staging bullish crossover against its exponential moving average. Resistance at 0.9766-0.9775 band (yesterday''''s high-March 2 high); breach would target 0.9789 (Feb. 28 high), then 0.9813 (previous base set Feb. 21), 0.9885 (55-day moving average) and 0.9901 (Feb. 24 high). Support at 0.9725 (hourly chart), then at 0.9680 (yesterday''''s low); breach would temper near-term positive outlook, targeting 0.9664 (Wednesday''''s low), then psychological 0.9600 and 0.9500 levels.